Friday 16 March 2018

Is SL1M panacea to youth unemployment?

The purpose of this post is to highlight the true objective , potential cost of SL1M or Skim Latihan 1Malaysia

SL1M is an expensive endeavor and merely a band aid solution. It is at best a peripheral solution , although some politicians tend to over sell it as some sort of silver bullet to graduate underemployment & youth unemployment.



Firstly , lets be clear. SL1M is merely an education program mainly at aimed providing soft skill training to graduate. It also include other modules such as organizational adaptability, grooming & etiquette, creative & analytical thinking which are adapted to organizations. This are areas which should have been addressed in school itself.
Source :  Pn Norashikin Datuk Haji Ismail , Secretariat for SL1M , EPU

It doesn't do the following :
1) reduce youth unemployment ( 10.5% youth unemployed which is 3x national rate)
2) reduce graduate underemployment ( some account put 45% of graduates cld be underemployed)

In order to achieve the objective above, the government has to induce new job creation.
The elephant in the room remains that Malaysia simply haven't created enough jobs esp skilled job.

The low hanging fruit would be government stop indulging in prestige projects such as TRX , MRT3 and ECRL , and redirect them to expand the social sector as shown below :
1) double/triple our public hospitals in next 10 years
2) Smaller class size, halve teacher's workload, build more schools
3) expand police & fire fighting force

Anyway , SL1M target group are graduates who are unemployable or currently underemployed.  These group mainly come from the lower income families. Our education system have failed in ensuring a level playing field. Among others, the public education promotes elitism via SBPs, MRSM & Cluster schools. SL1M is proof in the pudding.
Source :  Pn Norashikin Datuk Haji Ismail , Secretariat for SL1M , EPU
The chart above shows that graduates from families in B40 are twice more likely to be unemployed then graduates from M40 families

I am not convinced SL1M is even effective intermediate solution. This is because that companies tht take on SL1M trainees get a double tax deduction. The rakyat is therefore effectively subsidizing 48% of RM2000 monthly allowance for a SL1M trainee via tax deduction. (The govt provides same double deduction incentives for firms that hire people with disabilities)

Assuming 15,000 trainees. This could cost govt up to RM180mil in subsidy allowances from govt. On top that, companies can claim double deduction on training expenses capped at RM5000 per trainee. For 15k trainee, that would mean Rm36mil. Govt spends RM40mil on promotions, roadshows, open interviews. We looking at annual cost of RM250mil.

This is almost like the operating expenditure of running a full fledged university like UPSI. However, spending money on this is definitely better than hundreds of millions tax incentives for returning experts. By some account, this could be RM100mil a year.

But money is not the issue here. Thie issue is SL1M would displace the existing 1st year executive cohorts that firm take on yearly.

One possible adverse effect of SL1M is that, firms will start replacing their 1st year executive cohorts with SL1M trainees. This would mean the program will not benefit the most vulnerable group which is graduate youth from B40 families that SL1M claims to address. Those who remain unemployed & underemployed would remain so as firms take advantage of the double tax deduction.

From firm's point of view, they will able to obtain a first year executive with wages of minimum RM2000 per month but only cost the firm roughly RM1000 per month.

Lastly, We have to be more critical on govt programs. There is only 2 solution here.
1) address inadequacies in education system
2) induce more job creation in the economy with much needed expansion of public health & public education sector.

Here is a another article about SL1M which I recommend.

Sunday 11 March 2018

MRT 1 vs LRT3

The purpose of this post is to demonstrate how overpriced is MRT 1 when benchmarked against LRT3 despite both systems were build to carry same amount of passengers.

MRT 1 train & LRT3 train can both accommodate 1200 passengers & 1207 passengers respectively. If LRT3 were to emulate MRT1's frequency , both would be able to carry 20,400pphpd

Therefore, apart from construction cost, only difference btwn both appears to be L & M in the acronym.

We start with the official costing :
  • MRT1- 41km elavated & 10km underground - RM21bil 
  •  LRT3 - 37km elevated & 2km underground - RM9bil
Then we 'normalize' both. Basically we assume both MRT 1 & LRT3 consist only of elevated portion. This enable us to do an apple to apple comparison.

To do that, we assume that both underground portions are 2x the cost of elevated portion.
  • MRT1- 61km(41+20) elevated line - RM21bil 
  • LRT3 - 39km(35+4) elevated -RM9bil
So now we can calcuate cost per km for both MRT 1 & LRT3. 
  •  MRT1-RM344mil/km 
  •  LRT3- RM230mil/km
Therefore , MRT1 would have cost RM14billion using LRT3 as benchmark. That is RM7billion of wastage. Using a 20 year govt bond at 5% interest, RM7billion savings at project outlay means we save RM700million(coupon+principles sequestered) every year for next 20 years.

Lastly ,MRT shldn't be build in the first place. Govt shld have opted for BRTs which cost 10%-20% of cost of an MRT, provides sufficient capacity & connectivity as MRTs.

We better off using the savings here to expand public healthcare , public education & put more cops on the streets. This are areas we desperately need to expand, plus it creates the jobs we desperately need to induce wage increase & reduce youth unemployment & graduate underemployment. I intend to explore this later on.